A Final Review of the 2024 U.S. Election and Its Economic Stakes

As the 2024 United States presidential election approaches, the economic policies proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have garnered significant attention. Both candidates present divergent strategies that could profoundly impact the nation's fiscal health, trade relations, and overall economic trajectory.​

Vice President Harris's economic platform emphasizes substantial public investment and progressive taxation. Her proposals include increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and introducing new social programs aimed at supporting middle and lower-income families. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, these initiatives would increase federal spending by approximately $2.3 trillion over the next decade, while generating an estimated $1.1 trillion in additional tax revenue, resulting in a net addition of $1.2 trillion to the national deficit over ten years (Penn Wharton Budget Model, 2024). Critics argue that such an expansionary fiscal approach could exacerbate the national debt and potentially dampen economic growth. However, proponents contend that these investments are necessary to address income inequality and stimulate long-term economic development.​

In contrast, former President Trump's economic agenda focuses on tax reductions and protectionist trade measures. He advocates for making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, introducing further tax cuts for individuals and businesses, and implementing substantial tariffs on imports, including a proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a baseline tariff of 10–20% on other imports (FocusEconomics, 2024). The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that Trump's tax policies would decrease federal revenue by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, leading to a significant increase in the national deficit (Penn Wharton Budget Model, 2024). Economists express concern that such tariff implementations could trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners, disrupt global supply chains, and lead to higher consumer prices, thereby increasing inflationary pressures.

The electorate's focus on economic issues is evident, with a Gallup poll indicating that 52% of registered voters consider the economy an "extremely important" factor in their voting decision (Gallup, 2024). This underscores the critical role economic policies play in shaping voter preferences. Analysts predict that Trump's proposed tariff increases and immigration restrictions could lead to higher inflation and slower GDP growth. The Penn Wharton Budget Model suggests that such policies may result in increased consumer prices and reduced labor supply, potentially hindering economic expansion (Penn Wharton Budget Model, 2024). Conversely, Harris's plans for increased taxation on corporations and the wealthy, coupled with expanded social programs, may bolster consumer spending but also risk expanding the fiscal deficit.​

As the election nears, voters are presented with two distinct economic visions: Harris's approach of increased public investment funded by higher taxes on corporations and the affluent, versus Trump's strategy of tax cuts coupled with protectionist trade policies. Each path carries inherent risks and potential benefits, making the economic dimension a pivotal factor in the 2024 presidential race.

Citations:

Penn Wharton Budget Model. The 2024 Harris Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic, and Distributional Effects. Penn Wharton Budget Model, 26 Aug. 2024.

Tax Foundation. Kamala Harris Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis. Tax Foundation, 16 Oct. 2024.

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 6 Oct. 2024.

Penn Wharton Budget Model. The 2024 Trump Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic, and Distributional Effects. Penn Wharton Budget Model, 26 Aug. 2024.

Tax Foundation. Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis. Tax Foundation, 14 Oct. 2024.

Time. What a Kamala Harris Win Would Mean for the Economy. Time, 5 Nov. 2024.

Time. What Donald Trump's Win Means for the Economy. Time, 5 Nov. 2024.